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当心倒向战争

The UN may seed more troops to Cougo. Would they do auy good?

联合国可能向刚果(金)派遣更多的部队,但足他们能起多大作用呢?

 

    WHEN elephants fight, goes a Swahiliz sayingj, it's the grass that suffers.  And  so it is in eastern Congo, where civilians are being trampled in a terrible way in fighting involving Congolese troops, followers of the rebe leader, Laurent Nkunda, and an assortment' of nasty` militias. Some 250,000 people have been displaced. Reports of massacres, rape, cholera and hunger are multiplying'. Aid-workers say some 100,000 refugees are cut off from any help. Worse may come if the instability turns once again into a wider war.

正如一句斯瓦希里语格言说的那样,当大象打架时,遭殃的却足小草这样的情况就发生在刚果(金)东部,在一场卷入了刚果(金)军队、叛军头目洛朗·恩孔达的追随者以及无赖民兵组成的鸟合之众的战争中,平民正遭受着可怕的蹂踊大约25万人流离失所有关屠杀、强奸、霍乱和饥饿的报道成倍增加救援人员说,大约有10万难民得小到手侧可的救助如果动乱进一步演变为史大范围的战争,形势司能史加恶化。

 

    The cane-wielding Mr Nkunda, a dissident" Tutsi general with ties to Rwanda, has led his rebels against the weak Congolese government for years. He declined to take part in the political process that led to the election of Joseph Kabila as president in 2006. He says he is defending fellow Tutsis against murderous Hutu militias who, he says, are being supported by the government in Kinshasa''.

手持手杖的恩孔达先生足一位持小同政见的图西族将军,与卢1达有联系他领导叛军与软弱的刚果(金)政府作战己有数年他拒绝参加使得约瑟夫·片比拉2006年当选总统的政治进程他自称足在保护图西族同胞反抗蓄意谋杀的胡图族民兵,而这些人得到了金沙萨政府的扶持。

 

    His soldiers have been poised" to take the lakeside town of Goma, the provincial capital and once a tourist destination. Congo's army, backed by a thin blue line of UN peacekeepers, is *in no shape" to resist him. It was supposed to be reconstituted"' from the various units, militias and rebels that fought in the civil war between 1998 and 2003. But poorly paid government soldiers have scattered" as rebels advanced, killing and looting the very people they were supposed to be protecting.

    他的卜兵己准备拿卜湖边城市戈马(北基伍省)省首府和昔日的旅游目的地得到少量的联合国维和人员支援的刚果(金)军队则毫无还手之力这支军队据信足将小同队伍、民兵和参与了199H年到2003年间内战的叛军重组而成的军铜微薄的政府卜兵在叛军推进时四散而逃,杀戮和劫掠他们原本应该保护的人民。

 

    General Nkunda has threatened to march across Congo to Kinshasa to overthrow Mr Kabila if he refuses to start formal talks with the rebels. That sounds fanciful': Congo, nearly the size of western Europe, is covered in thick jungle and has almost no roads. But Rwandan-backed rebels did take Kinshasa once before, in 1997, sweeping away the old dictator, Mobutu Sese  Seko,  and installing Mr Kabila's elephantine; father, Laurent. Rwandan-and Ugandan-backed forces came close to repeating the upheaval a year later, provoking the awful civil war that *sucked in forces from several nearby countries including Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe.

恩孔达将军威胁,如果卡比拉拒绝启动与叛军的正式对话,就要横跨刚果(金)进军首都金沙萨推翻他。这听起来有些异想天开。刚果“却,一个面积近乎西欧大小的国家,丛林密布,几乎没有公路。不过卢旺达支持的叛军以前确也拿卜过金沙萨,那是在1997年,赶走了老独裁者蒙博托·塞塞·塞科,扶持了卡比拉人高马大的父亲洛朗。卢旺达和乌干达扶持的军队一年后差一点再现剧变一幕,引发了那场将周边数个国家包括安哥拉、纳米比亚和津巴布韦的军队卷入的可怕内战。

   

    General Nkunda knows that merely threatening such an assault will spread dismay and *play on popular dissatisfaction with Mr Kabila's government. "Kinshasa may be a dream but Nkunda seems intent on causing more trouble if he doesn't get what he wants," says a diplomat.

恩孔达将军知道仅仅是威胁要发动这样的进攻就会传布恐慌,并能利用民众对卡比拉政府的普遍不满。一位外交官称:“(拿卜)金沙萨可能不现实,但恩孔达如果得不到他想要的,看来意欲制造更多的麻烦。”

 

     Outsiders have so far done little to help. United Nations officials have asked the Security Council to approve the deployment of 3,000 more peacekeepers to*bulk up'' the 17,000-strong; force already spread across Congo. But it could take months to raise the extra troops and deploy  them. It is unclear, moreover, how far  UN soldiers are really able or willing to protect  civilians.  Peacekeepers  in Kiwanja did not prevent a massacre of dozens last week.

到现在为比局外者没帮上什么忙。联合国官员已请求安理会批准再部署3000名维和人员以增强已经散布在刚果(金)的多达1.7万人的部队。但要集结更多的部队并实施部署可能还需要数月。此外,联合国士兵是否真正能够或者愿意保护平民,尚不可知维和人员上周在基旺加就未能阻比几十人遭到屠杀。

 

    The European Union, which has two 1,500-strong battlegroups ready to deploy within days, has been *deaf to appeals for intervention. Neighbours may yet act; Angola has some troops in  Congo, training the army; the regional body, the Southern African Development Community,  said it was ready to send troops.

欧盟对介入的呼声一直未予理睬。欧盟目前己有两支100人的作战部队,司一在数日之内待命部署邻国或许会采取行动女Aj拉有一些军人在刚果(金)培训当地军队,地区性组织南部非洲发展共同体,称它准备派遣部队。

 

    A useful idea might be to get Rwanda to *hold back General Nkunda. This is not easy, not  least because its relations with some European countries have taken a bad turn. Diplomatic  pressure, especially from Rwanda's close friends, Britain and America, may be having some  effect: General Nkunda has not yet mounted his attack on Goma. But for how long will the   elephant be restrained.让卢达阻比恩孔达将军或许足个有用的主意这小太容易,主要足因为卢达与一些欧洲国家的关系己然交恶外交压力,尤其足来自卢达的亲密伙伴英国和美国的压力可能会有一些效果所以恩孔达将军至今还没有对戈马发动进攻但足这头大象还能被约束多久?

    建正译注自The Economist

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